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Euro Rises Ahead of ECB’s Interest Rate Decision, 40+ PIP Volatility Likely in EURO Parity; April 14, 2022

Euro Zone’s Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference

The key event from the Euro Zone will be ECB’s Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. The 6 members of the ECB Executive Board and 15 of the 19 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate, via rotation.

In today’s meet, ECB is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged but the Central Bank could tweak its guidance and signal that asset purchases will end “early” in Q3 in light of historically high inflation. In addition, ECB’s updated CPI, GDP, Employment Change and expected hike in interest rate may give further directions to the parity. Any hawkish message will boost the Euro, otherwise any dovish comments will drag the Euro downside.

Let’s see how EUR has reacted during the previous data release:

March 10:

Feb 03:

Technical View:

EUR/USD:

  • The euro appreciates ahead of ECB’s Interest Rate Decision and remains well supported above $1.0900 mark.
  • The pair made intraday high at $1.0923 and low at $1.0882 mark.
  • Today triple EMA on a day chart is down and H1 chart suggests up trend for the time being.
  • A consistent close above $1.0925 on H1 chart requires for the upside rally.
  • Alternatively, a sustained close below $1.0871 on H1 chart will check further supports. European Calendar will remain light for the day.
SUPPORTS RESISTANCES
$1.0871 $1.0925
$1.0850 $1.0957
$1.0822 $1.0989
$1.0801 $1.1026
$1.0778 $1.1052

 

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck

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