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Aussie Trades Almost Flat Ahead of RBA’s Policy Rate Decision, 40+ PIP Volatility Likely in AUD Parity; Feb 01, 2022

Australia Cash Rate Decision

One of the key events for the day will be Australia’s Cash Rate Decision scheduled at 0330 GMT/0900 IST. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBA Rate Statement, which is focused on the future.

RBA Gov Lowe said during the last meet that stronger economic data would likely make it appropriate to end QE when the program is reviewed at the Feb 1, 2022 meeting. Investors keep an eye on the following details to predict the further directions of the AUD:

  • What will be RBA’s bond buying program?
  • Revised Forecast of Inflation, GDP and unemployment Rate
  • Any hint on the Interest Rate hike in near future.

If traders get all the satisfactory answers from the RBA’s Monetary Policy statement, AUD will get appreciated against major peers otherwise delaying tightening of Monetary Policy will result in to sharp down fall of AUD against its counterparts.

Let’s see how AUD has reacted during the previous data release:

Dec 07:

Nov 02:

Technical View:

AUD/USD:

  • The Aussie trades almost flat ahead of RBA’s Monetary Policy and Cash Rate Decision.
  • Today pair made intraday high at $0.7071 and low at $0.7061 mark.
  • A day chart is down and H1 chart with triple EMA suggests up trend for the time being.
  • A sustained close above $0.7076 on H1 chart requires for the upside rally.
  • Alternatively, a consistent close below $0.7030 will check further supports.
Support Resistances
$0.7030 $0.7076
$0.7002 $0.7099
$0.6970 $0.7126
$0.6938 $0.7155
$0.6912 $0.7180

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck

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